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Will Haines: Welcome to Sekulow, Will Haines here, joined in studio by Jordan Sekulow and we're going to be talking about the midterms as we are now four weeks exactly until Election Day. Now, we know for much of the country, every day is Election Day heading up until November 3rd when the official Election Day happens. Much of the country has early voting starting already. Much of it will within the next week or so join those that have already started. So what we'll start to see is really every day will be this final push for the midterm elections. Now, a lot of doom and gloom out there for the GOP. You know, races that aren't expected to be competitive all of a sudden are. We're going to break all of that down. But in a surprising move last night, it was announced that former President Barack Obama will be going to Michigan on October 24th to campaign for Abdul Al-Sayed. This is an interesting move in the context of all the negative news stories we're hearing about how poorly Republican candidates are doing, how conservatives are going to get thumped in this election. When you have a state like Michigan where President Trump did win in the 2024 election cycle, you start to look at this and you say, why, if Mike Rogers and all these states are going to do so poorly, is the former President, like the top campaigner for the Democrats is the former President Barack Obama? He doesn't have to go to places that often because he can send a tweet or do an ad, but he will be in person in Michigan. Jordan, what does this tell you with this news that we heard last night?
Jordan Sekulow: It tells me that they believe they have a chance in Michigan, but that it's not done. So throw out all the polls. You would not send Barack Obama there if you thought you were 10 points down in the race. You wouldn't send Barack Obama there if you thought you were 10 points up in the race. So what does it mean to send a former President who's very popular and actually a little bit more popular—it's strange to say this, but as we look in the years—with more mainstream voters in Michigan who might be more put off by the more leftist, socialist-leaning, even Islamic kind of talk that has come out of Al-Sayed? To bring Barack Obama in to kind of bring in the moderate Democrats and maybe independent voters, but it tells me right off the bat that this is winnable by Mike Rogers. It's winnable for Republicans. We have good Republicans on the ballot there statewide for governor. Ben with John James, he's been down here and where we are, and he's been in Congress, of course. So you add that with Mike Rogers, you would not be sending Barack Obama to Michigan unless you believed he needed to be there. And he doesn't need to be there if, again, you can't win or if it looks like you're going to cruise to victory. It's a waste of his time. So to me, that says this is a race that you don't need to give up on, but a race that Republicans need to engage in more.
Will Haines: I also think that it is kind of a firewall for conservatives at keeping the majority in the Senate. But you're also seeing—and we're going to go through some of these polls of both Michigan as well as other states that have become in some cases shockingly close where traditionally a very bright red state, you're seeing some nervous polling and also some money being spent to try and stave off someone coming in and taking the seat and flipping it blue. But when you look at this with Michigan, the Real Clear Politics average, which is like the average of the most recent polls, has Al-Sayed at 47.8 percent and Mike Rogers at 44.2 percent. Al-Sayed was polling way ahead of Haley Stevens in the primary and just won by the skin of his teeth. So I think, yeah, if you are the Al-Sayed campaign, being only three and a half points up is a very, very questionable place to be at this point in time. But folks, I want to hear from you. Do you believe the polls? Do you believe the doom and gloom you're hearing, or is this Obama move kind of a tell that maybe the Democrats are on the defense as well? Give us a call, 1-800-684-3110. We'd love to talk to you on air. We have a lot more analysis coming up, and don't forget to support the work of the ACLJ, and we'll talk some about our election integrity issues as well that we fight for here coming up. But we'll talk to you right after this break.
ACLJ Announcer: The challenges facing Americans are substantial. At a time when our values, our freedoms, and our constitutional rights are under attack, it's more important than ever to stand with the American Center for Law and Justice. For decades now, the ACLJ has been on the front lines, protecting your freedoms, defending your rights in court, in Congress, and in the public arena. And we have an exceptional track record of success. But here's the bottom line: We could not do our work without your support. We remain committed to protecting your religious and constitutional freedoms. That remains our top priority, especially now during these challenging times. The American Center for Law and Justice is on your side. If you're already a member, thank you. And if you're not, well, this is the perfect time to stand with us at ACLJ.org where you can learn more about our life-changing work. Become a member today. ACLJ.org.
App Promo Announcer: Welcome to the all-new ACLJ app. Expert analysis and insight big tech can't censor. Customize your news and get real-time alerts on the issues you care about. Advocacy is now at your fingertips. Take action, make a difference. Support the causes you care about with just one tap. Be the first to know, breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox. Everything you need, all in one place. Stay informed, stay empowered. Download today.
Will Haines: We are so excited to announce the ACLJ's brand-new app. Completely redesigned to provide you with the best tools available to partner with us at the ACLJ. You can watch the daily Sekulow program, sign the petitions, customize your ACLJ membership experience, donate with the click of a button, and receive up-to-the-minute critical updates that the mainstream media can't censor. Just scan the QR code on your screen or go to your phone's app store, search ACLJ, and click install. It's that simple.
ACLJ Announcer: The challenges facing Americans are substantial. At a time when our values, our freedoms, and our constitutional rights are under attack, it's more important than ever to stand with the American Center for Law and Justice. For decades now, the ACLJ has been on the front lines, protecting your freedoms, defending your rights in court, in Congress, and in the public arena. And we have an exceptional track record of success. But here's the bottom line: We could not do our work without your support. We remain committed to protecting your religious and constitutional freedoms. That remains our top priority, especially now during these challenging times. The American Center for Law and Justice is on your side. If you're already a member, thank you. And if you're not, well, this is the perfect time to stand with us at ACLJ.org where you can learn more about our life-changing work. Become a member today. ACLJ.org.
Will Haines: Welcome back to Sekulow. We're talking about the midterm elections. We're giving some analysis here as we are exactly four weeks to Election Day. November 3rd, that Tuesday, will be the Election Day. Now, as we know in America, it's no longer Election Day; it's election months as they keep adding time to when you can early vote, when you can mail in vote for no reason at all. So that's where we're at. We're four weeks out and you're starting to see really this is when it counts. Even I feel like our campaigning in this country is still a little behind the times because it really should have been all of September is when it counts now that elections start real ballot casting a month out in some places. So you start to see, though, this last month is the final push, the sprint to the finish line, as they say, and you're seeing some interesting moves as polls look very dire for conservatives in this country at this moment. And you have forecasters saying there's a 73 percent chance of Democratic control of the Senate. It's almost a foregone conclusion like 92 percent for the House. But Jordan, they are very bullish on Democrats taking the Senate this cycle. You are seeing interesting polls pop up in places like Maine where Susan Collins always seems to be able to close, but it clearly is a place where they're having to spend money as Troy Jackson leads her there. Alaska, Dan Sullivan, the incumbent, is facing a tough challenge and behind in polls to Mary Peltola. You have James Talarico with a lead in poll, in theory, over Ken Paxton. We've also seen that kind of narrative, though, with Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke before. But then some more shocking places like Kansas and Nebraska that are starting to see the senators that are incumbents there are losing in polling or very close in polling to the Democrat challenger.
Jordan Sekulow: It's fair to be nervous when you start seeing President Trump was campaigning in Nebraska, and that's not a place that he would typically have to campaign for any of the statewide or races, maybe if there was some specific kind of issue that was somehow arising. But to bring in someone of kind of his power in a state that has been very red, I think since the late 1960s, is—and these are—we're talking incumbents, you know, and so well-known names. Now, it's—I will say there, you've got an interesting—and we talked about this during the break. It's a Republican and an independent who are really going at it. Pete Ricketts, the Republican, and Dan Osborn running as an independent. So we have noticed that we've seen these independents pop up. Really in Alaska, Dan Sullivan versus the Democrat. I think if it was not rank-choice voting where there's four people on the ballot for your general election, I don't know that the race would be this close because the other three people—Dan Sullivan's on there as a Republican. Then he's got the Democrat, Peltola. Then he has a guy with his name who ran as a Republican, has never gotten involved in politics before. But so he's also Dan Sullivan and is a Republican. And then it was going to be another Democrat in the fourth position. That Democrat on the final hour of the final day you could take your name off the ballot and drop out of the race, did, and it automatically moves up the fifth-place person who is a Republican always, who always runs, has never won anything before. So think about it this way: In a four-person rank-choice voting on Election Day, on general election in Alaska, there are three Republicans and only one Democrat. So if you're a Democrat, there's only one place for you to vote. If you're a Republican and you don't really get educated on exactly who I need to support here, you have three options. That can get very confusing for voters. And so what I think you have to do in Alaska is say this is a population where we can afford to basically contact every single voter, Republican voter in the state and make sure they understand who they need to be voting for so that it's not confused with the rank-choice voting and where they should go in and how they should do it. But I mean, imagine that. You're getting three Republicans splitting up votes versus one Democrat. There's only one place to go if you're a Democrat. They don't need any education. You just, if you're a Democrat voter, you know you're going to vote Democrat. You would just send them into the polls. But if you're a Republican, you just send them into the polls and you don't know the names, you're starting to get confused there. And again, they've tried to do something to separate the two Sullivans, which is insane. But then again, you add on this also-ran. So the Democrats have been very creative in supporting independents and in utilizing political systems that were changed, sometimes to help Republican incumbents in the past in Alaska, to their own advantage.
Will Haines: And Alaska, being a state with a smaller population, has some of the most interesting political gamesmanship of maybe any state in the nation. When you talk about even the rank-choice voting was adopted there a while back, and it did tend to favor the Republicans, exactly, Lisa Murkowski. Now you're starting to see it backfire as the Democrats in the state—it's not a state where the Democrat Party decided to just roll over. They were like, okay, let's learn the game. And they've clearly now—there even the New York Times, when talking about the second Dan Sullivan, they said we sent a reporter out to try and decide if this person is legit or if this is someone put up by Democrats to cause chaos and to take the election. And the New York Times response was, we can't say for certain either way. Which tells you all you need to know, that a reporter at the New York Times could not decisively say, no, this guy's really just running and just so happens to have the name Dan Sullivan. That tells you everything you need to know. But you're looking at places like Michigan, which I think is one of the more interesting races that a lot of people maybe aren't focused on because you don't sit around unless you're really into politics, unless you're watching this show or things of that nature, and think about senators from other states. And right here, you're looking at an open seat as Gary Peters is retiring. You have Abdul Al-Sayed, who was crushing it in the primary, came very close to losing that primary to Haley Stevens. And a lot of that had to do with his associations. Hassan Piker, who now he just refers to as a streamer from California when they were best buddies on the entire primary campaign. He hasn't spoken his name to my knowledge since the end of those primaries. And Mike Rogers, who was a longtime congressman, very hawkish, very strong defense-minded individual in the House of Representatives, led committees, was a leader.
Jordan Sekulow: I would say also, if you thought that the Trump vote was hurting, for some—his influence was hurting someone who can certainly distance himself. So he's been in the Republican politics and been there for the Michigan, for the people he represents in his district. But also he got to, as you said, Will, the national level in the House of Representatives, especially on issues of national security. But Michigan, interestingly, was one of those states where I think President Trump is still—is one of the reasons why we kind of got over the lip when it came to independent blue-collar voters. So when you put in somebody who, again, I think in most election years after a win like that, you would say this person should have a much easier path. The fact that you're kind of playing this game with, do you bring Donald Trump and how do you do that effectively? Maybe do it with John James, as Mike Rogers on stage. These are all things, again, that are going to have to be calculated as we speak because if there's not already early voting going on or requesting your ballot in your state, it's going to happen at least in the next week and a half or two. So like you said, Will, every day you've kind of got to campaign as if people are making their decision today, and then you have to wake up again and start that over. Like, okay, what's going on today? I need the message today because once people do have the ability to go walk in and cast their vote, what may have been interesting to them a month ago is not necessarily what's driving them today. And it's not that you necessarily have between now and Election Day on November 3rd to tell your whole story. Your whole story needs to be out now.
Will Haines: Well, and I think that's why it's interesting that you have Abdul Al-Sayed making the announcement. Very smart. You can't take away from Abdul Al-Sayed, he's been a very smart politician. You can tell he has mimicked the Obama tone in the way he talks. But getting a double-dip at this, as knowing people are starting to play out and plan. They didn't do this as a surprise Barack Obama's here. They did a—announce and 18 days from now he will be speaking. That is very strategic that people know. They're like, oh good, so if you're making your decision early, you're like, well, I know Barack Obama's going to be there speaking for him. I like Barack Obama. And then later on in places like Detroit, where he has struggled, and that's where Haley Stevens did really well, that's very, very strategic and you've got to hand it to the man. I would say also, in Texas, we're starting to see the polls get much closer. And I think this is the other side of this. In big states, people really don't start paying attention because, again, you can say you're in Houston, oh, Talarico's got an event there, you're in Dallas and Paxton's got an event there. These are big cities all over the state, as a huge state. So like everywhere you go, you might not be even that engaged yet even if you're definitely going to vote in the midterms. This is when you start getting engaged. And so if we start seeing more polls tighten up like this that benefit Republicans, again it means that Republicans have a chance that a lot of the media was writing off, wanted you to write off a month ago so that you don't send in donations, so that you don't show up and vote, so that you don't get activated, so you think there's no path to victory. Look at these current polls and they're all within the margin of error. So that means every one of these races we've talked about is within the margin of victory. Folks, when we come back, we'll be joined by our Director of Government Affairs in Washington, D.C., Mark Kelly, who will break down some of the House side, which is very interesting as well. But support the work of the ACLJ. We'll also talk a little bit about all the election integrity initiatives we have here at the ACLJ. If you can support us today, do so at ACLJ.org.
App Promo Announcer: Welcome to the all-new ACLJ app. Expert analysis and insight big tech can't censor. Customize your news and get real-time alerts on the issues you care about. Advocacy is now at your fingertips. Take action, make a difference. Support the causes you care about with just one tap. Be the first to know, breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox. Everything you need, all in one place. Stay informed, stay empowered. Download today.
Will Haines: We are so excited to announce the ACLJ's brand-new app. Completely redesigned to provide you with the best tools available to partner with us at the ACLJ. You can watch the daily Sekulow program, sign the petitions, customize your ACLJ membership experience, donate with the click of a button, and receive up-to-the-minute critical updates that the mainstream media can't censor. Just scan the QR code on your screen or go to your phone's app store, search ACLJ, and click install. It's that simple.
ACLJ Announcer: The challenges facing Americans are substantial. At a time when our values, our freedoms, and our constitutional rights are under attack, it's more important than ever to stand with the American Center for Law and Justice. For decades now, the ACLJ has been on the front lines, protecting your freedoms, defending your rights in court, in Congress, and in the public arena. And we have an exceptional track record of success. But here's the bottom line: We could not do our work without your support. We remain committed to protecting your religious and constitutional freedoms. That remains our top priority, especially now during these challenging times. The American Center for Law and Justice is on your side. If you're already a member, thank you. And if you're not, well, this is the perfect time to stand with us at ACLJ.org where you can learn more about our life-changing work. Become a member today. ACLJ.org.
Will Haines: Welcome back to Sekulow. Will Haines here, joined by Jordan Sekulow in studio as well as the ACLJ Director of Government Affairs, Mark Kelly, who's joining us from our D.C. studio. Mark, thanks for joining us. I know you're watching all of this very closely as we head now just four weeks until the midterms. But one thing that you were talking with our producers about before the show was how we need to be watching Florida on election night. That it can be an early bellwether for how those races—one, how they contrast with how they were polled, as well as what the margins of victory either way are as we look ahead for the rest of the evening. So I wanted to kind of get your thoughts and what you were thinking with that as we look ahead to how to even consume the media and the coverage on midterm night.
Mark Kelly: Thanks, Will. I think one good thing about Florida is they're a model for the nation in how they run their elections and count their votes. And I anticipate we'll see most of the results from Florida by 9:00 p.m. Eastern. So the rest of the country is going to know even before a lot of the polls close how the races are going. And Florida is one of those places where they did some redistricting, and there are three or four seats that are going to be in play—seats that Republicans in that state targeted for defeat by Democrats. And we're going to know just how the races are playing out in those really tough toss-up races pretty early. And then you'll move up the East Coast. You have a couple races in North Carolina, in Virginia, in New York. And so when you start seeing those races come in, you'll have a good, good idea of how the night's going to go.